Metro East Sun

Rep. C.D. Davidsmeyer (R-Jacksonville) wanted details from the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (CGFA) at a hearing Tuesday.

Executive Director Clayton Klenke discussed the Moody's Investors Service financial analysis report for Illinois, detailing the basic themes of fiscal 2018 and 2019.

“They have provided a rather pessimistic look at Illinois’s prospects for economic growth,” Klenke said. “The report this year continues to find some significant obstacles are in the way for growth, but it also identifies some positive developments over the last few years and some indicators that provide for the near term future some possibilities for some growth.”

Rep. C.D. Davidsmeyer (R-Jacksonville)

Though in the long-term, growth includes businesses being attracted to Illinois due to its well-educated and trained workforce and Illinois's transportation hubs that help link products to consumers, according to Clayton. “Unfortunately, on most economic indicators, Illinois does not compare favorably to most other Midwestern states or the nation," he said.

“Out-migration and worsening population trends have limited our overall personal income growth,” Klenke said.

Davidsmeyer was concerned about Illinois unemployment rates compared with the rest of the United States.

“Earlier, we heard about Moody’s saying we are not necessarily increasing employment; we are losing people out of the employment market because of age and possible workers leaving the state for greener pastures,” Davidsmeyer said to Jim Muschinske, CGFA revenue manager. “Is that what you think we are seeing?”

“I think what they were trying to discuss was the demographic problems that we see,” Muschinske said of the 0.5 percent in 2017, 0.8 percent in 2018 and 0.7 percent in 2019 decline forecasted. “In terms of the actual forecast for employment, essentially they were spot on with what we discussed. It isn’t that we are actually losing anticipated employment, it just the transition in the direction our demographics is headed and the danger sign is when you start to lose your wage-earning age brackets.”

If the decline in population is due to aging employees simply retiring south, that is understandable, Muschinske said, but if employees are leaving for “greener pastures” as Davidsmeyer said, then there is a definite larger economic problems brewing.